Cuban Issues

Fidel Cedes Power to Raul... at least for the moment

August 1, 2006

On July 31, 2006, Fidel Castro handed over the reigns of government to his brother, Raul, as he underwent surgery for gastrointestinal bleeding, according to a statement read on Cuban state television by his secretary, Carlos Valenciaga. Castro is the world's longest-serving head of state, and this represents the first time in 47 years he has ceded power. The move was announced as temporary, allowing Castro, who turns 80 on Aug. 13, several weeks to recover from surgery for a condition the statement described as "brought on by extreme stress" from recent public appearances in Argentina and eastern Cuba.

Castro is famous for his fortitude, frequently standing and delivering speeches that last four or more hours without a break. He has long extolled the virtues of healthy eating and exercise, and gave up cigars many years ago. But in recent years he has experienced a number of health issues, including a fall in 2004 that broke his kneecap and arm. The CIA has indicated it believes Castro shows signs of Parkinson's disease, a degenerative condition characterized by stiffness and shaking.

Once taboo in Cuba, talk of "after Fidel" has become increasingly commonplace in recent years as Castro himself has spoken about it. He designated his brother Raul as his successor several years ago.

Raul Castro, 75, serves as Cuba's Defense Minister. He is believed to have firm control of the Armed Forces of the Revolution (FAR), which is perhaps the most respected institution in Cuba and a stabilizing force. The FAR have carried out Cuba's military operations abroad, a source of national pride, and is not generally viewed as a force that would be used against the Cuban people in the case of instability. The Ministry of the Interior maintains separate troops that are associated with maintaining internal order and putting down any unrest. Raul is closely associated with Gen. AlvaroLopez Miera, the FAR's Chief of Staff.

Raul is often characterized as a pragmatist as opposed to Fidel's idealism, and he is credited with many of the economic reforms Cuba instituted in the mid-90's as it faced a economic crisis in the wake of the collapse of its Soviet benefactor in 1991. During that time the Cuban military downsized radically and shifted many former officers to the economic sector. As Cuba's economy has recovered in recent years as a result of revenue from tourism and favorable oil sales from Venezuela, Fidel has reversed most of those reforms.

Raul is not seen as the grand strategic thinker his brother is, who over the years has often appeared to be several steps ahead of U.S. policies designed to cripple his government. As one senior policy expert with firsthand knowledge of both men put it, "Fidel is playing chess; Raul is playing checkers."

Other potential players in a post-Fidel government are Ricardo Alarcon, President of the National Assembly; Felipe Perez Roque, the Foreign Minister; and Vice President Carlos Lage. Alarcon, 69, is seen as a savvy pragmatist who once served in New York as Cuba's U.N. representative, and frequently hosts visiting American delegations. Perez Roque, 41, served as Fidel's personal aide for seven years before being named to his current position. He is seen as an ideologue whose views mirror those of Fidel. Lage, 54, is a pediatrician by training with an expertise in economics.

Author: Glenn Baker