Cuban Issues

Fidel's Kin Brings Hope for Change

August 3, 2006

This commentary was originally published on Aug. 3, 2006, by the New York Daily News.

As an ailing Fidel Castro lies out of sight, questions abound about his designated successor, his brother Raul. Some say that if and when Raul takes over in earnest, we can expect more of the same. In fact, a Raul-led Cuba would look different in very important ways - and could represent an opportunity to transform our dysfunctional relationship with our island neighbor.

Whereas Fidel is ideological, Raul is pragmatic. It was Raul who was behind the economic reforms Cuba instituted in the mid-'90s as it faced economic collapse after the loss of its Soviet patron in 1991. Fidel later reversed those reforms, but once he is gone, pressure will build from within for more privatization.

Unlike Fidel, Raul is not a grand strategic thinker. Fidel has often been several steps ahead of U.S. policies designed to cripple his government. As one expert with firsthand knowledge of both men put it, "Fidel is playing chess; Raul is playing checkers."

Fidel pulls all the strings, big and small; Raul delegates. In fact, Raul has probably already designed a process by which he would spread out authority to the many savvy political hands around him. If in fact Raul's government does open Havana to change, what then? It will be tempting - almost irresistible - for the U.S. government, especially under the staunchly anti-Castro Bush administration, to meddle in Cuba's affairs and speed the transition to democracy.

But such U.S. plans would be doomed to failure. As Oswaldo Paya, Cuba's leading dissident, put it: "We do not accept transition programs made outside of Cuba." Indeed, the perceived threat from "the Goliath to the North," fueled by radical exiles in South Florida, only gives the Cuban government justification for crackdowns.

The U.S. should respect Cuban sovereignty and self-determination. Cubans want better lives, but they are also fearful of the chaos a rapid, uncontrolled change would bring. Such a situation could trigger the one security threat Cuba poses to the U.S.: mass migration. Tens of thousands of Cubans washing ashore in Florida is in nobody's interest.

Of course, Fidel may yet bounce back from surgery to reinstate his iron grip on the country. His stamina is legendary; of my seven meetings with him since 1999, most lasted more than seven hours. But even if this turns out to be just a test run, the transition has already begun.

Author: Glenn Baker